Deloitte forecasts holiday season retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion in 2026

Deloitte forecasts total U.S. retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion during the 2026 holiday season, from November 2026 through January 2027, up 4.0% to 4.8% year over year. Sales grew 4.1% in the same period in 2025, reaching $1.63 trillion. E-commerce sales are expected to reach $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4%; in the same period in 2025, e-commerce sales grew 7.5% to about $294 billion. Deloitte economist Akrur Barua said personal disposable income is expected to grow 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season.