Basel Action Network warns AI e-waste could reach 617 million tonnes

Impact level

⚪ Background

What happened

The environmental organization Basel Action Network published a white paper on October 8, 2026, estimating that retirements of AI-related electronic equipment from 2025 to 2050 could reach 395 million to 617 million tonnes, far exceeding previous forecasts that focused mainly on servers and AI accelerators. The organization says servers and accelerators account for only 13% of the weight of reference AI data center equipment; the rest consists of networking equipment, power supply, cooling, backup power, and other hardware. Rising retirements could increase pressure on recycling, reverse logistics, and processing facilities, and create risks of data and configuration leaks when equipment leaves service. [1]

Involves:Server、AI accelerators、Networking equipment、Cooling systems、Backup power systems

Seller impact

• InferenceInference: If retirements develop in line with this upper bound, medium-term demand for recycling, reverse logistics, and ITAD processing will rise, relatively benefiting service providers with compliant data destruction and asset recordkeeping capabilities. However, the report gives no year-by-year timeline, regional breakdown, or capacity data, so the actual timing is unknown. [1]
• InferenceInference: As equipment leaves service, it may contain system configurations, credentials, and proprietary software, potentially leading to stricter data destruction and asset tracking requirements for disposal firms and data center operators. The report mentions no specific regulations, effective dates, or mandatory standards, so it cannot establish that compliance obligations are already in force. [1]

Evidence that would disprove the assessment

• Assessment 1：If future official or industry statistics show that AI-related equipment retirements are significantly below the lower bound of 395 million tonnes, or that substantially higher refurbishment and reuse rates reduce actual scrap volumes, this assessment of rising demand would no longer hold.
• Assessment 2：If the organization revises its white paper, or an authoritative regulator explicitly states that ITAD data disposal is not subject to mandatory requirements, the assessment that requirements will tighten would no longer hold. The source’s revision status should be checked over the next two weeks.