U.S. households’ 2026 holiday budgets fall 5.5% to $1,018

Impact level

🟡 Consider

⚠ Risk:The survey measures expectations as of August, not actual spending; the declines by income band are compared with 2025 forecasts, not actual results.

What happened

Simon-Kucher released the eighth edition of its holiday shopping study on October 8, 2026, based on a survey of 1,501 U.S. consumers conducted August 6–20, 2026. The average U.S. household holiday budget for 2026 is $1,018, down 5.5% year over year and back to the 2024 level. The share who believe advertised discounts completely reflect genuine savings fell from 46% to 22%. While 55% plan to use AI to help with shopping, only 16% are willing to let AI complete a purchase. Black Friday remains the top choice at 52%, down from 60% in 2025 and 72% in 2023. [1]

Seller impact

• InferenceThe budget cuts are concentrated among lower- and middle-income groups (down $529 and $301 in the $100,000–$199,000 income brackets). In categories including appliances, travel, and electronics, about seven in ten shoppers plan to spend more than $100 on a single purchase; spending plans are weakening for beauty, subscriptions, gaming, and pet supplies. Sellers may face pressure on fourth-quarter order volumes, making revenue growth more dependent on pricing than sales volume. [1]
• FactThe pattern of confidence in discounts is shifting: the share who consider them completely genuine fell to 22%, but those who consider them either completely or mostly genuine still total 67% (down from 71% in 2025). The main shift is from complete to qualified confidence, rather than a collapse in trust. Combined with Amazon’s new reference-price rules taking effect on April 23 and May 18, 2026, this raises both compliance and conversion risks for inflated original prices and countdown messaging. [1]

Evidence that would disprove the assessment

• Assessment 1：This assessment would be invalidated if actual U.S. holiday retail spending reported by the National Retail Federation or Census Bureau for October through December does not show spending declines among lower- and middle-income groups, or if sales in the target categories do not decline year over year.
• Assessment 2：This assessment should be revised if a subsequent comparable survey shows complete confidence recovering to its 2025 level, or if the platform’s reference-price rules are officially revoked or relaxed.